Determinants of the Effectiveness of Maghreb Diplomacy in Resolving the Libyan Crisis (2014–2024): A Study of Internal Challenges and External Interventions

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of Maghreb diplomacy in settling the Libyan crisis during 2014–2024 by analysing internal challenges, external interventions, and coordination among Maghreb states. It assumes that limited effectiveness resulted not from the initiatives themselves, but from the interaction of political and institutional division, arms proliferation, armed formations, and the political use of tribal and regional affiliations with conflicting external interests and the absence of a unified Maghreb mechanism. Using the descriptive-analytical method, the study explains how these determinants affected mediation’s ability to move from maintaining dialogue to producing an implementable and sustainable settlement. It concludes that Maghreb diplomacy helped keep the political process open, yet its impact remained constrained by domestic fragility, fragmented decision-making, external support and militarisation, and weak regional coordination, preventing initiatives from accumulating within a coherent Maghreb framework capable of supporting a settlement.