A Proposed Framework for Managing Development Priorities in Libya sing Strategic Foresight Methodologies

Abstract

This study aims to develop a proposed institutional framework for managing development priorities in Libya, facilitating a transition from “statistical monitoring” to evidence- and foresight-informed “strategic decision-making.” The study addresses the absence of a systematic institutional mechanism linking available national data to the prioritization of development needs amid limited resources and competing demands. The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach, supported by a comparative review of relevant literature and international experiences. It used detailed data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS 2024–2025) to diagnose development gaps across four main dimensions: education; health and nutrition; living standards and digital inclusion; and social protection. Spatial and social equity was incorporated as a cross-cutting criterion across these dimensions. The findings reveal significant structural gaps, most notably low enrolment in early childhood education, 9.2% nationally and only 0.6% in the South, a weak home learning environment (2.9%), persistent malnutrition, including a stunting rate of 12%, substantial regional disparities in vaccination coverage, 63.1% in Al Jabal Al Akhdar compared with 90.9% in Tarhuna, and a pronounced digital divide. Only 22.3% of households own a computer, with a 47-percentage-point gap between the poorest and wealthiest quintiles. Within its theoretical and applied framework, the study developed the Strategic Development Priority Index (SDPI) as a preliminary prototype of a composite quantitative tool for prioritizing government interventions. It also proposed a rigorous protocol for transforming the prototype into an officially validated national index through expert validation and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, the study proposed institutional mechanisms for operationalizing the index, most notably establishing a Development Priorities Management Unit within the Ministry of Planning and integrating the index’s outputs into the public budgeting cycle through a phased roadmap: design, pilot testing, and nationwide implementation.