Analysis of Natural Vegetation Cover Change in the Wadi Al-Mamlouh Basin, Al-Jabel Al-Akhdar, for the Period 2004-2024 Using GIS

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal changes in the natural vegetation cover within the Wadi Al-Mamlouh Basin on the northern escarpment of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Libya, during the period 2004–2024, and to identify the major natural and anthropogenic factors driving these changes using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Multi-temporal Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2B satellite imagery, together with the ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM), were employed to derive the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). Furthermore, the influence of topography, soil characteristics, climatic conditions, agricultural expansion, and urban growth on vegetation dynamics was investigated.The results revealed a substantial deterioration of the natural vegetation cover over the study period. The proportion of very weak vegetation increased from 6.19% in 2004 to 22.37% in 2024, while weak vegetation expanded from 9.66% to 46.26%. In contrast, moderately dense vegetation declined from 55.78% to 23.93%, and dense forests decreased dramatically from 28.37% to 7.43%. The findings indicate that vegetation degradation was primarily associated with increasing human pressures, including agricultural expansion, urbanization, recurrent wildfires, and overgrazing, in addition to climate variability and extreme flood events, particularly Storm Daniel in 2023. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating GIS and remote sensing techniques for long-term environmental monitoring and generating reliable spatial information to support natural resource management, vegetation conservation, and sustainable environmental planning in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Libya.