Elections in Divided Contexts: The Libyan Case in 2026 between Procedural Readiness and Political Deadlock

Abstract

This paper examines the complexities of organizing presidential elections in the Libyan context, a state that has experienced what is termed "creative chaos." The process of holding elections faces a significant hurdle: the contradiction between electoral preparedness and the mechanisms of implementation. Despite procedural readiness, the application mechanism frequently collides with political obstacles that are difficult to surmount, namely the fragmentation of political actors and the absence of an agreed-upon constitution. Conducting elections under these current conditions could trigger a new military crisis among stakeholders, potentially returning Libyans to the starting point of armed conflict between warring parties. This study seeks to propose preliminary solutions based on a constitutional and political agreement between the conflicting parties to ensure fair and transparent elections, free from the hegemony of political and military actors. This study employs an analytical approach to examine the Libyan case, providing an analysis based on a comparative balance with states that have undergone regime collapse. It investigates how those states navigated such stages and successfully held elections. The study reveals that the competing political and military forces pose a substantial threat to the electoral process, hindering its success in the absence of constitutional, political, and military consensus. Conflicting interests among these parties may lead to the use of military force, thereby causing the elections to fail and creating a profound rift that exacerbates the crisis and leads to the rejection of electoral results. The paper concludes that presidential elections in Libya cannot serve as a solution to the current crisis until a political and military settlement is reached among the dominant actors on the Libyan scene. In other words, elections should be the culmination of political solutions and settlements between the parties, rather than the initial step in the process.